nav emailalert searchbtn searchbox tablepage yinyongbenwen piczone journalimg journalInfo searchdiv qikanlogo popupnotification paper paperNew
2025, 05, No.375 48-59
人工智能对就业的影响效应探究
基金项目(Foundation):
邮箱(Email):
DOI:
摘要:

人工智能作为21世纪数字化时代的通用技术,其数字代理人的经济特性给全球就业带来了复杂影响。从历次技术变革来看,技术进步对就业结构的迁移和再分配效应要显著高于对就业总量的影响,并不必然导致一国失业率提高。中国作为就业人口大国,政策重点应聚焦于人工智能对不同收入阶层和地区层面的非对称影响以及衍生出的“中空”效应。关键是要实施就业促进型产业发展政策,增强人工智能的超模块化互补效应,以更多高质量就业来抵消技术替代;加快推进职业教育和高等教育体制改革,将人工智能作为通识教育纳入各级各类教育培训之中,减少因技能不匹配造成的技术性失业;完善相关社会保障政策,为应对人工智能技术变革过程中可能出现的各种就业问题筑牢基础“防线”;针对不同发展水平的地区,实施差异化的人工智能转型投资策略,有效化解人工智能对就业市场引发的空间极化风险。

Abstract:

As a universal technology in the digital age of the 21st century, artificial intelligence's economic characteristics as a digital agent have brought more complex impacts to global employment. From the perspective of previous technological changes, the migration and redistribution effects of technological progress on employment structure are significantly higher than their impact on total employment, and do not necessarily lead to an increase in a country's unemployment rate. As a country with a large employment population, China's policy focus should be on the asymmetric impact of artificial intelligence on different income classes and regional levels, as well as the resulting "hollow" effects. The key is to implement employment promoting industrial development policies, enhance the "super modular complementary" effect of artificial intelligence, and offset technological substitution with more high-quality employment;accelerate the reform of vocational education and higher education systems, incorporate AI as a general education into education and training at all levels and types, and reduce technical unemployment caused by skill mismatch; improve relevant social security policies to build a solid "defense line" against various employment issues that may arise during the process of AI technology transformation; implement differentiated AI transformation investment strategies for regions with different levels of development, and actively respond to the spatial polarization risks brought by AI to the job market.

参考文献

[1]DAVID R. People are worried that AI will take everyone's jobs:We've been here before[EB/OL].(2024-01-27)[2024-06-20].https://www.technologyreview.com/.

[2]KORINEK A, STIGLITZ J E. Artificial intelligence, globalization, and strategies for economic development[Z]. NBER Working Paper No. 28453, 2021.

[3]HAMPOLE M, PAPANIKOLAOU D, SCHMIDT L D W, et al. Artificial intelligence and the labor market[Z]. NBER Working Paper No.33509, 2025.

[4]ARNTZ M, TERRY G, ZIERAHN U. The risk of automation for jobs in OECD countries:A comparative analysis[Z]. OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers No.189, 2016.

[5]FREY C B, OSBORNE M A. The future of employment:How susceptible are jobs to computerization?[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2017, 114:254-280.

[6]MANYIKA J, LUND S, CHUI M, et al. Jobs lost, jobs gained:What the future of work will mean for jobs, skills, and wages[R].[2024-06-20].https://www.sea-vet.net/publications/564-jobs/lost-jobs-gained-what-future-of-workwill-mean-for-jobs-skills-and-wages.

[7]陈永伟,许多.人工智能的就业影响[J].比较,2018(2):135-160.

[8]蔡跃洲,陈楠.新技术革命下人工智能与高质量增长、高质量就业[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2019(5):3-22.

[9]PETERS M A. Beyond technological unemployment:The future of work[J]. Educational Philosophy and Theory, 2020, 52(5):485-491.

[10]THATCHER A R. Output, employment, and productivity in the United States after 1800[J]. Royal Statistical Soci ety Journal Series A:Gerneral, 1967, 130(1):133-134.

[11]BRESNAHAN T F, TRAJTENBERG M. General purpose technologies,"engines of growth"?[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 1995, 65(1):83-108.

[12]VINUESA R, AZIZPOUR H, LEITTE L, et al.The role of artificial intelligence in achieving the sustainable development goals[J]. Nature Communications, 2020, 11(1):233.

[13]BRYNJOLFSSON E, ROCK D, SYVERSON C. Artificial intelligence and the modern productivity paradox:A clash of expectations and statistics[Z]. NBER Working Paper No.24001,2017.

[14]RUSSELL S, NORVIG P. Artificial intelligence:A modern approach[M]. 4th Edition.London:Pearson Education, Inc, 2021.

[15]BRYNJOLFSSON E, LI D, RAYMOND L R.Generative AI at work[Z]. NBER Working Papers No. 31161, 2023.

[16]HUTTER M. Universal algorithmic intelligence:A mathematical top-down approach.In:GOERTZEL B, PENNACHIN C.(eds)Artificial General Intelligence. Cognitive Technologies[M]. Berlin, Heidelberg:Springer,2007.

[17]COYLE D, DIEPEVEEN S, WDOWIN J, et al.The value of data summary report[R].[2024-06-20].http://bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/valuingdata.

[18]孙志燕.共享增长与繁荣:数字化时代区域政策创新与战略转型[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2024.

[19]SHAH R. AI Safety without goal directed behavior[C]. Alignment Forum, 2019a, 7 January.

[20]JACOBIDES M G, CENNAMO C, GAWER A. Towards a theory of ecosystems[J]. Journal of Strategic Management, 2018, 39(8):2255-2276.

[21]LEGENVRE H, AUTIO E, HAMERI A P.Creating value by combining AI and other open technologies:Cloud infrastructure as a pivotal asset. In:AALTONEN P, KURVINEN E.(eds)Contemporary Issues in Industry 5.0.Technology, Workand Globalization[M]. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham, 2025.

[22]DAVID A, CHIN C, SALONONS A, et al.New frontiers:The origins and content of new work, 1940-2018[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2024, 139(3):1399-1465.

[23]FELTEN E, RAJ M, SEAMANS R. Occupational, industry, and geographic exposure to artificial intelligence:A novel dataset and its potential uses[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 2021, 42(12):2195-2217.

[24]LANE M. Who will be the workers most affected by AI?:A closer look at the impact of ai on women, low-skilled workers and other groups[Z]. OECD Artificial Intelligence Papers 26, 2024.

[25]ELOUNDOU T, MANNING S, MISHKIN P, et al.GPTs are GPTs:Labor market impact potential of LLMs[J]. Science, 2024, 384(6702):1306-1308.

[26]OECD. Job creation and local economic development:The geography of generative AI[R].[2024-06-20].https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/job-creation-and-local-economic-development-2024-83325127-en.html.

[27]MARK M, SHRIYA M, et al. The geography of generative AI's workforce impacts will likely differ from those of previous technologies[M]. Brookings Institution, 2025.

(1)数据来源:Statista,Crunchbase数据库。

(2)数据来源:《第五次全国经济普查公报(第二号)》,国家统计局,2024年12月26日。

(1)数据来源:世界经济论坛。

(2)数据来源:IDC,The global impact of artificial intelligence on the economy and jobs, NEEDHAM, Mass., September 17,2024。

(1)数据来源:美国保尔森基金会。

基本信息:

DOI:

中图分类号:F249.2;TP18

引用信息:

[1]孙志燕,宋逸群.人工智能对就业的影响效应探究[J].改革,2025,No.375(05):48-59.

基金信息:

检 索 高级检索

引用

GB/T 7714-2015 格式引文
MLA格式引文
APA格式引文